Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 12.196462 14.965496 18.054186 21.731386 25.965625 30.664172 36.246966
2025-11-16 8.071374 11.550077 15.880319 21.562591 28.711302 37.293216 48.251276
2025-11-23 5.650723 9.217931 14.078516 20.961056 30.210864 41.958140 57.721924
2025-11-30 4.473231 8.152938 13.553934 21.674814 33.151163 48.344226 69.473310
2025-12-07 3.382845 6.906215 12.475245 21.345254 34.480172 52.536850 78.458573
2025-12-14 2.692633 6.108967 11.883490 21.556381 36.461838 57.605838 88.758529
2025-12-21 1.959540 5.025594 10.616035 20.510516 36.416489 59.729473 95.004397
2025-12-28 1.628497 4.614685 10.396086 21.069742 38.780519 65.369832 106.385487
2026-01-04 1.327682 4.176383 10.039725 21.327885 40.644219 70.318673 116.936280
2026-01-11 1.100691 3.833808 9.796368 21.729594 42.728869 75.659599 128.235208
2026-01-18 0.935542 3.589691 9.700586 22.366896 45.216398 81.700820 140.772635
2026-01-25 0.715472 3.116686 9.038211 21.857622 45.693318 84.586774 148.619206
2026-02-01 0.561682 2.786080 8.657557 21.911811 47.269038 89.488198 160.072479
2026-02-08 0.428467 2.455897 8.213041 21.789314 48.531798 93.973130 171.120548
2026-02-15 0.306581 2.087181 7.583288 21.185705 48.840713 96.865992 179.735945
2026-02-22 0.255542 1.969387 7.574329 21.905556 51.658982 104.068791 195.462512
2026-03-01 0.185875 1.712632 7.121710 21.573279 52.421264 107.782164 205.654433
2026-03-08 0.144029 1.557596 6.921240 21.786155 54.246608 113.388121 219.102053
2026-03-15 0.091169 1.270759 6.231398 20.731592 53.439803 114.314419 224.812727
2026-03-22 0.073172 1.194224 6.202698 21.295481 55.966572 121.261493 240.792280
2026-03-29 0.055482 1.093556 6.062864 21.555767 57.867949 127.142132 255.130385
2026-04-05 0.042797 1.015615 5.983271 21.960800 60.094109 133.688397 270.777383
2026-04-12 0.034255 0.964590 5.992509 22.603346 62.864759 141.328691 288.499294